This question has been debated forever, and I will most likley not change the mind of anybody. I thought I would give my two cents, since that is all it is worth. If you are a math person this is not a game of luck, but playing the odds; every hand has a chance to win even 22 vs AA, the ducks are going to win a certain percentage of the time. If I have AA I want 22 to call me everytime, do I want them to catch there 2 outer? NO! It will happen. Is that "luck"? No it is mathmatics pure and simple. The lottery is LUCK, having a computer pick 5 numbers for you and paying for it in the chance to win; I call that gambling, I have no control over my investment. In poker I decide when my money goes in. Keno is gambling I have played that once or twice in the last year for fun; just to kill time. Poker is a game of skill; do players get lucky some people think they do, but 67 is going to win 23% of the time against AA (i think my math is correct) so if they win you might call that lucky, I call it odds.
I am sure I will get some comments on this one, no grammer checks please.
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4 comments:
I love when this question comes up. Poker is a skill game. Period.
With that said, on any given night, luck outweighs the skill. You are always subject to the luck of the cards for what happens during any given session.
However, poker is a mathematical game. Applying math in your decision making gives you an edge of an opponent who does not base his decision making on a mathematical foundation.
Can that opponent beat you tonight? Of course. Heck, they can beat you all week if that's what the cards want to happen.
People have discussed online poker, and said that it's rigged, or that you take more bad beats online. Everytime I hear this, I ask that person to use poker tracking software to show me the statistical miracles. And no one has ever been able to do so.
My latest database has roughly 100,000 hands in it. And guess what? The math works out perfect. AA holds up 80% of the time. KK too...imagine that.
And I flop a set about 11% of the time...and I hit my flush draws on the turn about 20% of the time...amazing!
And guess what happens when I call with these hands without the proper odds (pot and/or implied)? I lose money. And when I've got the right odds? I win money.
I've had bad days...bad weeks..bad months...it happens. The mathematical edge is so small that you can get beat over and over again and it all remains within the statisically appropriate realm.
Over time though, I'm slowly making money, and my weaker opponents are slowly losing money.
And quite frankly, I don't want more people to realize how much skill is involved, because if I'm playing a table full of skilled players, then luck is all I have!
I knew Zach would have a comment. I agree 100%, some people mistake luck for the odds of making their draw. If you have a 25% chance of making your hand you will make it every 1 out of 4 hands, is that "being lucky" it might just be your night to make all of your draws. Trust me I have had nights when I could not make a hand with 21 outs. So this is why we play.
Zach turned me on to your blog and I love this question as well.
Is it luck when someone hits the progressive jackpot in Vegas? Of course it is. Is it luck when someone goes on a sick run and wins big money playing craps, roulette or blackjack? Absolutely. Is it luck when someone hits their two outer on you? Definitely.
My point is this, there are players who play poker the same way they play all those other games. They take bad odds and hope to hit. When they do, it's luck.
That being said, the HUGE casinos that have been built on the Strip exist because of all the people who believe that they can continue to chase bad odds and win because they are "lucky."
Just like the casinos get rich because suckers are willing to play games where the house has a mathematical edge, good poker players build bankrolls because suckers are willing to chase draws where they are giving up a mathematical edge.
So is poker a game of luck? I like the answer that Robert Williamson III (one of the best Omaha players in the world) gave:
On any given day poker is 99% luck and 1% skill. Over a month it might be 50% luck and 50% skill. Over the course of a year (or a lifetime) its 99% skill and 1% luck.
Okay I agree that cards are a mathmatical statistic. With that said. Is it luck or skill when a player in one of our tournaments gets dealt pocket a's five times pocket k's twice pocket jacks once and pocket tens once? odd say that shouldn't happen so is it luck? I think skill is playing cards dealt and luck is getting great cards to play.
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